Turkey’s economy began to be viewed by many as a rising star
Turkish Minister for European Affairs, Mr. Egemen Bağış during his visit to the Baltic States answered questions. «Turkish economy has been Europe’s fastest growing economy in the last decade and in terms of gross domestic product. Turkey has become the world’s 16th largest economy as of 2010. The OECD estimates that if Turkey sustains this economic performance in the next decades, it will be one of the ten largest economies in the world and will be the second-largest economy in Europe by 2050», said the minister.
How the Turkish economic development plan has been correlated with the global/European crisis issues (in economy, in general and financial in particular)?EgemenBağış: For the past few years, Turkey’s economy began to be viewedby many as a rising star. Turkish economy has been Europe’s fastest growing economy in the last decade and in terms of gross domestic product. Turkeyhas become the world’s 16th largest economy as of 2010. The OECD estimates that if Turkey sustains this economic performance in the next decades, it will be one of the ten largest economies in the world and will be the second-largest economy in Europe by 2050. Given the resilience of the Turkish economy as opposed to the fragility of the EU economies, there emerged the obvious need to revisit the common interests that Turkey’s EU membership would bring about.
One of the strongest areas of cooperation in Turkey-EU relations is in the field of economics. As expressed in Turkey’s 2011 Progress Report, the EU-Turkey Customs Union continues to boost bilateral trade between the EU and Turkey, which exceeded ? 100 billion in 2010. Turkey is the EU’s seventh biggest trading partner while the EU is Turkey’s biggest.
Moreover, almost half of Turkey’s total trade is with the EU and almost 80% of Foreign Direct Investments in Turkey comes from the EU. Nevertheless, we are not content with these figures. We look forward to a further increase in the volume of trade and investments in the upcoming years.
Another important point to be discussed in evaluating possible contributions of Turkey’s EU membership concerns the issue of energy.
Thanks to its unique location, Turkey is Europe’s energy corridor for Central Eurasian, Caucasian, and Caspian oil and gas resources. Over 70% of the crude oil and natural gas reserves of the world are located in Russia, the Caspian and Middle East regions surrounding Turkey.
The EU’s current energy dependency rate exceeds 50% and is expected to reach 70% by 2030. As part of big scale energy projects like Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project and Nabucco pipelines, Turkey will significantly strengthen EU’s energy security by diversifying its energy supplies.
Being the 7th largest country in terms of geothermal potential, and the 8th largest in terms of hydroelectricity, Turkey is one of the richest countries in the world in renewable energy resources. Therefore, Turkey’s accession will considerably help the EU increase the share of renewable resources in its energy consumption.
What’s the level –political, economic, etc. – of the EU-Turkish relationships at present?
Egemen Bağış: The start of accession negotiations is assumed to constitute the beginning of an irreversible process in which the candidate country’s membership perspective becomes gradually clearer. This has not been the case with Turkey. No negotiation process has been purely technical, but none has been influenced by political factors to the same extent as Turkey’s.
In Turkey’s accession negotiations out of 33 chapters, 13 were opened and 17 of the remaining 20 were blocked due to the political impediments of certain Member States and the EU Council. Currently, there remain 3 chapters (Competition Policy, Public Procurement and Social Policy and Employment) which may technically be opened. However, as in the previous enlargements, these 3 are the most difficult chapters, which have critical macroeconomic effects that other candidates have reserved to the last.
All these developments lead to a gradual decline in the credibility of EU both in the eyes of Turkish people. Today, 92 % of the Turks believe that the EU is sincere and has double standards when it comes to Turkish accession.
Developments especially since December 2006 unfortunately showed that certain Member States distracted the routine course of the negotiation process by reflecting their self-interests to the process. Other Member States and the EU institutions have not been able to counteract this approach, which does not serve the interests of the Union.
Enlargement process is left in the background and tructural problems of the Member States are disregarded. Instead of visionary and long-term policies, EU adopted short sighted solutions.
It has been more than half a century since Turkey has knocked Europe’s door. In the past, Turkey’s EU vocation had purely economic reasons. Turkey of today is different. It is no more a country that would wait at the door without any justifications. Sometimes I wonder if Turkey’s power is an impediment before its accession to the Union.
Some claim that Turkey has no real alternative to Europe. This argument might be fair enough taking into account the level of economic integration between Turkey and the EU, and in particular, the fact that a liberal and democratic Europe has always been an anchor for reform in Turkey.
However, the opposite is valid as much. Europe has no real alternative to Turkey. Especially in a global order where the balance of power is shifting, EU needs Turkey to become an ever stronger, richer, more reputable and more secure Union. I hope it will not be too late before our European friends discover this fact.
It’s been 50 years since the first „guest workers“ agreement has been concluded between Germany and Turkey. What are the outcomes for both sides –positive and/or negative — as there are more than 3 mln Turkish people moved to Germany only?
Egemen Bağış: For historical, political, economic and social reasons, Turkey and Germany have been and will continue to be important partners for each other. Throughout history, the two countries have had friendly relations. The strong cooperation is still continuing today.
Actually, the most significant aspect of Turkish — German relationship is the Turkish community living in Germany.
Having signed the Workforce Agreement with Germany in 1961, Turkey sent a great deal of its labor force to Germany where Turkish immigrant workers helped to reconstruct the war-torn country.
Turkish community had struggled with difficulties and achieved a remarkable success in such period, and the second and third generations of Turks had a strong presence in Germany nowadays.
The Turkish community in Germany, with almost three million people(nearly 1 million bears German citizenship), demonstrates a strong presence. Thus, Turkish immigrants and guest workers of the 1960s turned into resident citizens. Undoubtedly, they created substantial added value for Germany. On one occassion, it is a German-Turkish filmmaker who represents Germany in the international arena. On another occassion, it is a German-Turkish football player who contributes to Germany’s success. Recently, German politicians of Turkish descent have also been quite active in politics on federal and state level. A major German political party is co-chaired by a second generation German of Turkish descent.
According to the report „The Impact of Migration in German Society“ published by the German Migration and Asylum Institution in 2005, without migrant workers, German economy could not have been in its current good standing. Turks in Germany also contribute to job creation and economic growth with 70.000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Today, these SMEs create a total turnover of 30 billion Euros per year and provide employment to at least 350.000 people.
In fact, Turks are no longer guest workers or foreigners there, but they are both citizens of Turkey and Germany with their mother tongue Turkish and fluent German.
Meanwhile, strong bridges have been built between Turkey and Germany.
First, Germany has become Turkey’s major trade partner and the level ofGerman investment in Turkeyhas continuously been increasing. Second, thousands of retired Germans aresettling down in Turkey.Between the years 2002 and 2010, German citizens acquired 17.270 real estateproperties in Turkey.Contrary to increasing number of Germans migrating to Turkey, Turkish migration to Germany came toa halt and even went into deficit. In 2009, 25.000 Turkish citizens migratedfrom Turkey to Germany whereas, 35.000 citizens left Germany for Turkey.
Facts and figures indicate that Turkeywill join Germany to leadthe future of Europe in economic, demographic,socio-cultural and political means.
In the 50th year of Workforce Agreement, we should seek more comprehensivepolicies even beyond the integration. I think, it’s time to talk about equal participation.
It seems that these relations are somehow one — ided: Latvians are active tourists in Turkey, there are Turkish foodstuffs, carpets, etc. to name a few in Latvia. What are the other advantages for the Turkish — Latvian sides; any perspectives in „mutual advantages“ for the years to come?
Egemen Bağış: The diplomatic relationship between Turkey and Latvia was established with the Friendship Treaty of 3 January 1925. Turkey did not recognize the annexation of the Baltic States by the Soviet Union in 1944. The relations between the two countries were revitalized with a Common Declaration in 1991 after the independence of Latvia, following the dissolution of SSCB.
Membership perspective to NATO and EU made the Turkish and Latvian foreign policies meet at a common denominator. Turkey supported Latvia’s NATO membership. Latvia also supports Turkey’s EU membership process. We always appreciate the positive and friendly character of bilateral relations. We voice our interest in further expanding mutual economic contacts. Cooperation in tourism is dynamic and the entrepreneurs on both sides are interested in building further contacts. There exists a considerable potential in the development of north-south transit between the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea region, including Turkey and Latvia. The extension of the Zubr railway to Turkey, I believe, would open so many opportunities for our nations and for the region as a whole.
Olga Pavuk, Eugene Eteris Baltic-course.com
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